Five Key Concerns Driving President-Elect Trump’s Greenland Strategy

The Samuel Group has been working on U.S.-Greenland issues for the past two years, conducting commercial studies and an executive visit to the region to meet with Greenland’s political and business leaders (see Connecting Greenland to US Investment Opportunities).

This article is based on the Samuel Group’s general assessment and direct experience of the current situation as expressed by President Trump and is intended to provide some useful insights to readers on this topical issue.‍

Greenland rarely makes global headlines—yet beneath its icy surface, it has emerged as a focal point of strategic competition among the United States, China, and Russia. While the idea of an outright U.S. purchase may have seemed far-fetched when first floated by President-Elect Trump, the geopolitical logic behind American interest is undeniable. Below, we outline five key concerns driving Trump’s attention toward Greenland, viewed through his characteristic blend of business acumen and national security priorities.
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1. Arctic Security and Missile Defense

Greenland has long been vital to U.S. national security. During WWII and the Cold War, American forces established bases, runways, and—most importantly—early warning systems on the island. Today, Greenland is home to the Thule Air Base and a crucial radar station that underpins U.S. missile defense and space security efforts.

WHY IT MATTERS TO TRUMP: As global heating causes the Arctic’s ice to retreat, new opportunities and vulnerabilities emerge for surveillance and missile deployments. Forward bases in Greenland could enable the U.S. to detect and intercept potential threats more quickly, including Russian nuclear submarines that can no longer hide under thick Arctic ice. With new sea routes opening, protecting strategic transport corridors—or denying adversaries access—becomes paramount.

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2. Countering China’s Growing Influence

Another significant driver for Trump’s Greenland interest is the perceived rise of China as a global rival. Greenlandic politicians initially welcomed Chinese investments in mining, infrastructure, and even airport construction. Yet, these deals—like China Communications Construction Company’s (CCCC) bid to build airports—were ultimately shelved or withdrawn, likely due to U.S. pressure.

WHY IT MATTERS TO TRUMP: In Trump’s world, trade, security, and diplomacy are inseparable. Phasing out Chinese investments in Greenland helps deny Beijing a foothold in a region that is strategically pivotal to the United States. For Trump, ensuring that Greenland does not become part of a rival’s supply chain or military sphere of influence is a top concern.

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3. Emerging Trade Routes and Sea Lines of Communication

As Arctic ice recedes, completely new sea routes will become navigable within the next decade. The Northeast Passage and the Transpolar Sea Route (over the North Pole) will dramatically shorten global shipping times between Asia, Europe, and North America. This shift will also enable new ways to move troops or supplies from the U.S. to northern Europe, bypassing traditional Atlantic routes.‍‍

WHY IT MATTERS TO TRUMP: Trump’s “America First” approach places a premium on ensuring the U.S. retains control—or at least influence—over these emerging maritime corridors. Control of Greenland can shape both commercial and military traffic, bolstering North American security and economic interests in the face of rising great-power competition.

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4. Mineral Wealth and Resource Competition

While Greenland’s geology promises untapped mineral resources (including rare earth elements critical to modern technologies), the risks and costs of Arctic mining are high. China has shown interest in Greenlandic mining, but projects often stall at preliminary stages due to financial, environmental, or geopolitical hurdles.

WHY IT MATTERS TO TRUMP: Securing access to Greenland’s minerals is part of a broader strategy of resource diversification and national security. Rare earth elements, for instance, are essential for defense technologies, from fighter jets to missiles. Ensuring the U.S. retains a favourable position (and blocking Chinese control) fits into the administration’s broader attempts to bolster domestic supply chains.

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5. Greenland’s Political Future

Ultimately, Greenlanders themselves are caught in the middle. Calls for independence continue to grow, but reliance on Denmark, the U.S., or Chinese investments complicates the path. Trump’s approach—true to his style—is to leverage threats, deals, or forward military deployment to secure U.S. influence.

WHY IT MATTERS TO TRUMP: An independent Greenland might open doors for more direct U.S. engagements or potentially become a contested sphere with China and Russia. Trump’s inclination is clear: secure Greenland’s alignment with the U.S. on favourable terms, or consider reinforcing American presence as a last resort.

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Looking Ahead

For President-Elect Trump, Greenland is more than a real estate opportunity—it sits at the nexus of national security, global trade, and the U.S. rivalry with China (and by extension, Russia). As the Arctic continues to warm and ice recedes, strategic calculations and high-stakes diplomacy will only intensify. Whether Greenland maintains or shifts its alliances will have a decisive impact on the future of Arctic geopolitics, setting the stage for what Trump calls “the dance of the elephants,” a new era of great-power competition in the far north.

In this unfolding saga, Greenland faces a complex choice: pursue independence, reinforce ties with Denmark, or welcome external partnerships from the U.S., Russia, or China. Each path comes with its own promises and perils. For now, Trump’s five chief concerns underscore just how critical—and contested—this new Arctic frontier has become.